… As Nigeria’s installed capacity stagnates, the real fight is for available, deliverable, and commercially sustainable megawatts
Written By Rashidat O. Okunlade
The numbers tell a story of staggering dysfunction. Nigeria boasts an installed generation capacity of over 13,625 megawatts (MW). Yet, in February 2026, the national grid could only muster an average available capacity of 4,384 MW, forcing the country to operate at a plant availability factor of a mere 32 percent. For a nation of over 200 million people, this gap is not just an inconvenience; it is an existential economic drag.
It is against this grim backdrop that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s approval of a ₦2.7 trillion power project aimed at significantly boosting electricity supply and transmission capacity towards 19,000MW must be understood. The initiative is not merely an investment in infrastructure; it is an attempt to revive a patient whose vital organs have been failing for decades.
The Root of the Crisis: Why the Lights Stay Off
The difficulty affecting power supply in Nigeria is not a lack of installed power plants. As the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has repeatedly pointed out, the challenge lies in converting installed capacity into available and deliverable power.
The crisis is threefold:
Generation and Gas Constraints: Many thermal plants operate far below capacity due to gas supply shortages and liquidity issues. For instance, the flagship Egbin plant ran at just 37 percent availability in early 2026, while some plants like Alaoji recorded zero output. The commercial chain is broken; when Generation Companies (GenCos) are not paid, they cannot pay gas suppliers, and the grid suffers.
Transmission Bottlenecks: Even when power is generated, the transmission network cannot carry it. The TCN has a simulated wheeling capacity of about 8,700MW, but actual evacuation depends on line availability and voltage stability. A fragile grid limits how much power can reach distribution companies.
Distribution and Market Liquidity: The distribution companies (DisCos) struggle with collection losses, estimated billing, and infrastructure decay. Without a solvent market, the entire value chain collapses under the weight of legacy debts.
The Solution: What Needs to Happen
The way out, according to industry experts, requires a shift in focus from “installed capacity” to “commercially sustainable power”.
The most urgent interventions include:
Restoring Generation: Ensuring dependable gas supply and predictable payment arrangements across the gas-to-power chain to reduce plant downtime.
Fixing Market Liquidity: Implementing credible metering, transparent settlement, and targeted regulatory decisions to make contracts predictable. The government’s push to clear legacy debts is central to this.
Grid Stabilization: Moving beyond short-term fixes to a structural overhaul of the transmission network, including reinforcing critical corridors and modernizing control systems.
What Tinubu Met and What He Has Done
When President Tinubu assumed office in 2023, he inherited a sector plagued by suppressed demand, dilapidated infrastructure, and a grid that was serving only about 15 percent of the country’s electricity demand. Over 90 million Nigerians lacked access to grid electricity, and the sector was burdened by over ₦6 trillion in legacy debts accumulated between 2015 and 2025.
Here is a breakdown of the positive steps taken by the administration:
The Electricity Act, 2023
Signed into law just weeks after taking office, the Act liberalized the power sector, moving it from the Exclusive List and allowing states to generate, transmit, and distribute their own power. States like Lagos, Enugu, and Ekiti have already begun setting up their own electricity markets.
Aggressive Debt Resolution
To restore liquidity, the President approved a payment plan to settle legacy debts. A ₦501 billion inaugural bond was issued under the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme, recording 100% subscription. Over ₦1.2 trillion has been paid to GenCos out of a verified settlement of about ₦2.3 trillion, with conditions requiring them to clear gas debts and invest in infrastructure renewal.
Massive Metering and Infrastructure
To tackle the menace of estimated billing and improve revenue collection, the Presidential Metering Initiative has metered over 1.5 million customers. On the transmission side, the TCN installed 82 power transformers between January 2024 and November 2025, adding approximately 8,500MVA in capacity. Plans are also underway to modernize the Osogbo Grid Control Centre and build an East-West super grid.
The 19,000MW Transmission Target
The current push to raise transmission capacity beyond 19,000MW is a strategic move to ensure that the grid can actually evacuate power from the new generation projects being developed, such as the Gwagwalada Independent Power Plant (GIPP).
Why It Matters
The ₦2.7 trillion investment and the 19,000MW target represent a critical test of political will. Nigeria’s power sector has been a graveyard of good intentions and broken promises. However, the current approach differs by addressing the commercial root of the problem, the legacy debts alongside the physical infrastructure.
The real measure of success will not be the amount of money approved, but the megawatts that actually reach homes and businesses. As TCN’s Managing Director noted, “Progress should be measured not by the number of plans produced, but by how much additional electricity becomes available to the grid and reaches consumers”.
Until the gas supply stabilizes, the grid is hardened, and the market becomes solvent enough to attract private capital, Nigerians will continue to rely on generators. The Tinubu administration has laid the financial and legislative groundwork; the next phase must deliver the light.
© ROTAMEDIANEWS Digital Newspaper & BusinessEcho Magazine by ROTA Media Concepts
For advert placement, news tips and subscription enquiries, contact the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief, Rashidat Olushola Okunlade.
rotamedianews@gmail.com businessechomag@gmail.com
